UCB Roundtable: If the Playoffs Started in March…Who’s Your Lineup?

This time it was Intangiball’s turn to challenge the great minds of the United Cardinal Bloggers team. I decided to construct a lineup that I believed in, but one that offered some intrigue. Brendan Ryan leading off and Colby Rasmus in the 6th spot as opposed to the 2nd generated much discussion…on and off of the record. UCB legend, Matthew Leach chimed in as well.

Put the number 10 on your back and consider the following lineup…If the playoffs began today, assuming everyone is healthy and knowing only what we now know about this team, this is who I would run out there. I’m offering this up for discussion because, while certain spots are clearly no-brainers, there is plenty of room for debate. Change something and explain your logic. Roast me from any angle you please. I’m Tony La Russa and I can handle it.

1.       Brendan Ryan (SS)

2.       Skip Schumaker (2B)

3.       Albert Pujols (1B)

4.       Matt Holliday (LF)

5.       Ryan Ludwick (RF)

6.       Colby Rasmus (CF)

7.       Yadier Molina (C)

8.       David Freese (3B)

9.       Adam Wainwright (P)

You know, as I look this list up and down like my first centerfold, I think it just became real to me…who don’t we stack up against? And before you shout out the Phillies and Yanks, ask yourself, how would this group do playing half their contests in those parks?

-Justin

Daniel @ C70 at the Bat

Schumaker 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludwick RF
Freese 3B
Molina C
Carpenter P
Ryan SS

Most of the stats bear out that more runs are scored when the pitcher isn’t hitting ninth.  With Skip and Ryan, there are two leadoff type guys, plus with Rasmus in the two hole you can take some advantage of his speed, though it is more likely extra bases rather than straight steals.  Molina goes right in front of the pitcher, because it makes it easier to move him along if he reaches.

As for the starting pitcher in the playoffs, flip a coin.  Carp and Waino are both great options.

Jeff @ 5 o’ Clock

I don’t quite understand the math behind the newer forms of lineup construction, so I’ll just say this: I don’t want Brendan Ryan and his declining walk rate anywhere near the top of the order.

I guess I’d leave Skip in the leadoff role vs. RHP and insert Lopez there vs. LHP and turn Colby loose in the No. 2 spot every day:

1. Schumaker/Lopez (4)
2. Rasmus (8)
3. Pujols (3)
4. Holliday (7)
5. Ludwick (9)
6. Freese/whoever else plays (5)
7. Molina (2)
8. Ryan/Greene/Lugo (6)
9. (1)

Mike @ Stan Musial’s Stance

Lineup?  I’ve read Tango’s ‘The Book’, at least the section on lineup construction…but it didn’t stick.  I’d better re-read it.

That said, my thoughts will probably mirror most:

1.  Schumaker – 4
2.  Rasmus – 8
3.  Pujols – 3
4.  Holliday – 7
5.  Ludwick – 9
6.  Molina – 2
7.  Freese/Lopez – 5
8.  Ryan – 6
9.  Hurler – 1

Schumaker’s the leadoff because he has a better OBP than Ryan.  I like having Rasmus’ speed and power combination in the #2 slot, and I expect McGwire will fix his aggressiveness, returning him to his career 12% BB%.  AP/Holliday/Ludwick is self-evident.  Molina in the #6 slot because, in my opinion, he’s become a dependable high leverage situation RBI guy.  I like having Freese in the 7 hole as a rookie – less pressure – and Lopez could hit higher, but where?  Ryan hits 8th, and then the pitcher’s spot.

I think this lineup would do quite nicely in Philly or Yankee Stadium based on how tiny those parks play.  They would probably score a few more runs there than in St Louis.

Matthew Leach @ MLB.com & Obviously You’re Not a Golfer

The bigger argument against Rasmus in the 2 spot, to me, is much, much simpler. He had a .307 OBP last year. If that comes up DRASTICALLY, sure, I’d love him in the 2 spot. At some point in his career, I can see him being a really good fit there. But now? No. He could add 40 points — a very big uptick — and still not have the kind of OBP I want hitting in front of Pujols and Holliday. Give me Lopez there when he plays, and Rasmus down in the 5-6 area.

Nick @ Pitchers Hit Eighth

1.  Schumaker – 2B

2.  Pujols – 1B

3.  Ryan – SS

4.  Ludwick – RF

5.  Holliday – LF

6.  Freese – 3B

7.  Rasmus – CF

8.  Pitcher – P

9.  Molina – C

Chew on that a minute.

Ok, I admit – I didn’t come up with that on my own.

I would go: Schumaker, Rasmus, Pujols, Holliday, Ludwick, Freese, Molina, Ryan, Pitcher – just like most of the rest of you.  But I plugged that lineup into the Analysis Tool at Baseball Musings and it spit out the lineup at the top as the highest run producing combination.

The analysis tool is based largely upon weighted OBP and SLG – but arranges them to maximize at-bats and opportunities to move runners over.

Take it for what it’s worth.

Pip @ Fungoes

The reasons for batting Colby Rasmus sixth have swayed me:

• More beneficial opportunities to steal
• Break up the two lefties (Schumaker) at the top of the order
• Use some higher-OBP hitters at the top.

With a CHONE-projected .350 OBP, Felipe Lopez looks good in the #2 spot. Given some flexibility with Lopez as a switch hitter, and Skip Schumaker’s

and David Freese’s platoon advantages, here are a couple different lineups:

Vs. LHP

1. Lopez, 2B

2. Freese, 3B

3. Pujols, 1B

4. Holliday, LF

5. Ludwick, RF

6. Rasmus, CF

7. Molina, C

8. [pitcher]

9. Ryan, SS

Vs. RHP

1. Schumaker, 2B

2. Lopez, 3B

3. Pujols, 1B

4. Holliday, LF

5. Ludwick, RF

6. Rasmus, CF

7. Molina, C

8. [pitcher]

9. Ryan, SS

The first lineup projects to create about 5.0 runs per game, as does the second.